12/25/2022 0 Comments Sidenotes for mac![]() ![]() If measured by GDP, it's already achieved. He went on to lay out what was needed for a shift in the Fed's restrictive outlook as follows: "First we'll want to see growth continuing to run below trend, we'll want to see movements in the labor market showing a return to a better balance between supply and demand, and ultimately we'll want to see clear evidence that inflation is moving back down to 2 percent."Īs for "growth running below trend," that is a work in progress. He actually used the phrase "job openings" 3 times including the following statement: "job openings are incredibly high relative to the number of people looking for work."Įarlier in the press conference, he pointed out that job openings had only begun to come down slowly, but still remained very high. Powell set the stage for some heightened JOLTS sensitivity by mentioning it specifically several times this year, including at the press conference two weeks ago. With that level of lag, it's not hard to understand why JOLTS rarely moves markets.īut 2022 is a year for "rarely" to be in the spotlight. To put that in perspective, we've had August NFP data in hand for more than a month, and we'll get SEPTEMBER'S NFP data the day after tomorrow. Specifically, today's JOLTS release covers the month of AUGUST. ![]() It's more to do with the release schedule. We can't really blame JOLTS for that directly. Even the lowly weekly jobless claims data has a much stronger track record of mattering to the bond market. Of all the labor market reports that sound like they should be important, JOLTS is by far and away the least historically relevant when it comes to market movement potential. The fact that we are forced to credit JOLTS with such a feat is rather stunning. Granted, gains still could be in question by the end of the day, but in the AM hours, anyway, JOLTS helped us remain in stronger territory. Gains were in question until the 10am release of the JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). Mortgage Backed Bonds and Securitizationīonds got off to a decent start in the overnight session with help from a lower-than-expected rate hike from the RBA (Australia's central bank) and ongoing recovery in EU bond markets.Setapp subscribers also have access to SideNotes. A trial download version of the app is also available. The app is also available through the Apptorium website. SideNotes 1.1 is $19.99 and is available worldwide through the Mac App Store in the Productivity Category. Small bug fixes and performance enhancements. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |